Tuesday, January 31, 2017

CFD - No Guts, No Glory (Part 2)

Happy Chinese New Year!

As the title suggest, this post is a continuation of my previous post on Forex trading.

My first encounter with Forex trading occurred more than twenty years ago. A friend had recommended it as a way to earn an alternative income and for a short while, things were good. Sadly, it all ended when when the owner of the firm absconded with all the investors' deposit.

Back then, we were given a couple of days of training on Forex and worked in a small office in Shenton way. Every night, we would turn up to be briefed by the analyst who would show us the charts, trends, support and resistance points for the day. I trade USDJPY week nights between 8pm-2am. Technology was primitive and we had to enter our trades by passing paper slips to the traders who are licensed to execute our orders.

Fast forward to 2017 and while the fundamentals are the same, technology has advanced by leaps and bounds. It is easier now but at the same time, more complex and at a faster pace.

Trading in USDSGD can be a little tricky as SGD is NOT one of the 6 major currencies the USD is balanced against (US dollar index), nor is it one of the 8 major traded currencies in the world today. That being said, the reverse is true that it would not be as heavily speculated/ influenced as compared to the other currency pairs. Forex is not for the faint hearted and it is highly volatile, complex and merciless to the unprepared.

In this post, I will cover two resources where you can obtain all the analysis you need for Forex trading; especially if you are trading USDSGD and has a hard time coming across information that may be useful to you.

Investing.Com

Investing.Com is my primary resource for Forex trading. It provides real-time analysis and recommendations, as well as regular write ups on trends and current affairs. It is also available as a mobile app (in-app purchase to remove ads).



Summary for USDSGD on Investing.Com

Investing.Com provides you with the summary of technical trends in different time intervals, the corresponding action recommended using different indicators, as well as the support and resistance points. Their mobile app does an excellent job presenting the indicators in a single view.


Investing.Com Mobile App

If you are not good with reading charts, Investing.Com makes it really easy for people like us πŸ˜€ For example, a number about 70 on the Relative Strength Index tells you that the market is overbought and a number below 30 tells you it is oversold. Investing.Com simply tells you to sell or buy based on what that index is.

Relative Strength Index is a common gauge for investing. DailyFX has a write up here on how to use RSI indicator for Forex trading.

Trading Economics

Next on my list is Trading Economics. Not a frequent read but a great place to get a summary of all your monthly/ quarterly key economic reports and forecasts.


Singapore's Economic Indicators on Trading Economics


Singapore's Economic Forecast and Outlook from Official Sources


Economic Calendar of Upcoming Reports

On a More Cautious Note

Now that you are introduced to these resources, it is important to understand that none of these tell you where the market is heading with 100% certainty. RSI, Stochastic Oscillator, Bollinger Bands etc are all lagging indicators; meaning they tell you where the market was and at best, where it could be going.

We track these indicators not because they tells us where the next pot of gold will be but where the pitfalls are. Forex is 95% risk management and most amateur day-traders fail because they do not have a risk management strategy or because they did not follow through with it. The importance of risk management is true for all kinds of trade but especially so with Forex.

The following are two defensive trading strategy I was taught

  1. Buying only when the market is oversold and shorting only when it is overbought; minimising the risk of the market moving against you. That is, in addition to all the other indicators pointing in the same direction.
  2. Locking your profit and loss on an open trade when you leave your desk using an opposing trade of the same amount so that regardless of where the market moves, your profit/ loses are protected/ minimised. 

That being said, it all depends on the individual; and so, I urge you to read this and formulate your own trading strategy before you throw your savings in Forex.

The following are additional reads and resources that I would recommend.

  • Richard Lee's write ups on Forex must-knows
    • Impact of GDP on currency (here)
    • Impact of Trade Balance on currency (here)
    • Using technical analysis - Moving Average Explosions (here)
    • Using technical analysis - Golden Cross (here)
  • Trading Economics on Singapore Indicators (here)
  • Kathy Lien's articles on current Forex analysis and opinions
  • Marc Chandler's articles on Investing.Com based on historical technical analysis

Do you know of other resources that would be useful to Forex trading? 

4 comments:

  1. Nice blog. It nicely explain importance of education CFD trading. Without having knowledge of CFD trading you are not able to make profit with CFD investments. Also make sure you choose right CFD trading platform.
    Haim Toledano

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